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President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine stated that proposals for a peace deal developed with American diplomats are poised to be completed in a matter of days. Afterward, U.S. representatives will submit the terms to the Kremlin.

Berlin Talks Yield Major Headway, But Key Hurdles Remain

After two days of discussions in Berlin, American negotiators reported on Monday that around “90%” of the disputed points between Moscow and Kyiv had been resolved. Although the outlook appears positive, the path to ending the conflict is not guaranteed, especially given the Russian lack of participation from the current dialogue.

In the early hours of Tuesday, the Ukrainian president said that the US Congress was anticipated to consider defense assurances and that a complete package of agreements could be prepared “imminently.” He added that, the U.S. would hold consultations with Moscow, potentially followed by summit-level talks possibly this coming weekend.

Defense Assurances and Allied Backing

“The plan involves five key agreements. Several concern binding security pledges: formally ratified, that is, voted on and approved by the United States Congress,” the president remarked to journalists. He clarified that these assurances would “reflect the collective defense clause” of the Nato alliance.

On Monday, US officials did not provide precise information regarding the probable makeup of the defense package or the consequences if Russia sought to capture more land following an agreement. They did, however, confirm that the United States has no plans to place boots on the ground in the country.

Heads of state from the United Kingdom, France, and Germany and eight other European countries issued a joint statement that forces belonging to a “allied coalition” could “help with the regeneration of Ukrainian military capabilities, in protecting Ukrainian airspace, and in supporting safer seas, including through operating inside its territory.”

However, they did not suggesting these measures would constitute guarantees matching Nato’s article 5. Furthermore, there is scant indication that Moscow is anywhere close to agreeing to the type of package under discussion between Washington and Kyiv.

Kremlin Response and Territorial Dispute

On Tuesday, the Russian government said it had not received the specifics of the proposals on security guarantees. Additionally, a senior Russian diplomat, Sergei Ryabkov, asserted that the country would never accept forces of NATO member states being stationed in Ukraine “under any circumstances.”

The primary obstacle between the Ukrainian team and US negotiators continues to be the territorial question. One proposal centers on Ukraine ceding the areas of the Donbas it still holds, while the Ukrainian side wants to freeze the lines. “We are discussing the territorial issue. You know, it is one of the key issues. Currently, there is no agreement on it yet,” Zelenskyy remarked following the Berlin discussions.

American mediators, headed by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, has suggested a compromise solution. This framework would see Ukrainian forces withdraw, but Russia would not move forward, with the demilitarised area established as “an open economic area.” Russia has indicated it could use police and national guard units rather than the military in such an area, implying it would still expect to control the territory.

“I want to stress once again: a ‘free economic zone’ does not mean controlled by Moscow. Not legally or in practice will we recognise Donbas – its temporarily occupied part – as belonging to Russia. Categorically,” said Zelenskyy.

Path Forward and Potential Outcomes

It is not clear how the two sides will proceed on the territorial issue. The Ukrainian leader has previously suggested that a negotiated arrangement such as a free economic zone could be conceivable if the citizens of Ukraine approved it in a national vote. The critical stumbling block is expected to arise when the plans are presented to President Vladimir Putin of Russia, who has given no sign he is willing to compromise on his military objectives.

“If Putin rejects everything, we will face precisely the situation we are encountering on our plane right now – instability,” commented the president, recording the comments after his plane departed from Berlin.

“I believe the United States will apply sanctions pressure and provide us with additional armaments if he rejects everything. In my view, that would be a fair request from us to the Americans,” he concluded.