A mere eight weeks prior when Morgan Rogers stood on the pitch at Sunderland, seeming perplexed as his coach scolded him over failing to anticipate a penetrating pass. Back then, with the team went six without a win, the question was if his displays were an indicator or a cause of the team's more general malaise.
“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”
On Sunday, however, the manager's outburst was decidedly more positive. When the in-form star drilled in his brace-sealing goal to reinstate Villa's lead, Emery ripped off his winter coat, spread his arms and bellowed. The team marched on to ten wins in a row and after failing to win their initial half-dozen matches, now sit just three points adrift of table-toppers Arsenal.
Is Aston Villa Serious Title Contenders?
This is an exceptionally difficult question to resolve. History, a general sense of Villa, suggests not. Moreover, they have not been wholly dominant this season, despite the fact the victories have stacked up.
According to the data, twice all season has the team posted an xG more than 0.5 greater than their opponents. For a team who have just won ten consecutive victories, Villa look strangely fragile – yet at the moment the tight outcomes are swinging for them.
The Rogers Recipe
The prevailing tactic appears to be to exchange chances with an opponent and wait for their talisman to save the day with some crisp finishes. This occurred against Leeds, it transpired in London, and again when facing United.
The initial strike originated from an exquisite effort, curled just inside the goal frame from the edge of the area. For his second was essentially a slight scruffier version of goal number one as he pounced on a setup by his strike partner.
“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”
Can It Last?
Common sense dictates no. In the recent win, the opposition had more efforts and more shots on target. They have triumphed in eight consecutive games by just one goal. They have allowed goals in all but one of those fixtures.
A statistical correction may well be the greatest opponent Villa have to face in the near future. Their key man, almost certainly, cannot keep on blasting the football into the top corner week in, week out.
Reasons for Optimism
Perhaps there is a different scenario where, instead of outcomes regressing to match displays, performances begin to trend towards results. Vital cogs could still rediscover their best form.
- Ollie Watkins might resume finding the net regularly.
- The attacking talent could transform into the force he was at Borussia Dortmund.
- The defensive duo are due to come back from the treatment room, bolstering an occasionally vulnerable backline.
Perhaps there is in that the possibility of a genuine bid, yet it seems unlikely cannot keep relying on a single individual.
Relishing the Unlikely
But then, this was unforeseen. Few believed the team would sit in the top three for the holidays. And most definitely back in October, no one envisioned the young forward by the end of the year would be spearheading a championship pursuit while establishing himself as a crucial player for the national team.
This winning streak should be enjoyed precisely because it appears so improbable. When Rogers positioned himself before the North End at the final whistle leading the celebrations, he appeared to be thoroughly enjoying it. A feeling he has rightly earned. These spells are uncommon in the sport and ought to be celebrated.
