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Residents of the Big Apple will learn who will be their new city leader this Tuesday, in a race that will determine who runs and protects the country's largest city at a time when Donald Trump has threatened to deploy armed forces to the city.

Against that backdrop, New York has witnessed a mayoral election that has pitted two distinctly opposing Democratic figures against each other. The contest has turned into an acrimonious showdown, laced with alleged racial bias and Islamophobia, but it is the ideological divide between the two main candidates that could have significant consequences for how the Democratic party performs in next year's congressional races.

The Progressive Challenger

In the progressive corner is Zohran Mamdani, the 34-year-old democratic socialist whose rapid ascent and people-powered movement has brought global notice. On the establishment side is Andrew Cuomo, the ex- Democratic New York governor now campaigning independently – and benefiting from the backing of ultra-rich donors and big business.

With days to go, it is the progressive, the one-time underdog who defeated Cuomo in the Democratic primary who is firmly installed as the frontrunner. The candidate, who has run on a platform of economic justice and promised to halt rent increases for about two million city residents, has outpaced his rival by significant margins across all surveys conducted in the fall, and it is very much the younger man's election to throw away.

A Bitter Contest

Yet, Cuomo, who resigned as governor in 2021 amid accusations of misconduct, has stated clearly he will fight to the end, and not necessarily in an fair manner. He has criticized Mamdani's goals as unrealistic, and in the final stretch chuckled along as a broadcaster made anti-Muslim comments about the candidate, who is a Muslim. Recently, the independent was strongly criticized as racist after sharing an AI-generated ad that featured a series of racial caricatures and showed Mamdani freeing a group of criminals.

This represents a rather grubby end to an race that could be key to the direction that the Democratic party, struggling in its response to Trump's authoritarian grabs, takes in the near future.

National Implications

Should Mamdani secures a clear victory, the establishment party leaders who have declined to support his campaign will be compelled to address a message that has resonated with voters' frustration at inequality, inflation and the establishment. It would be difficult for Chuck Schumer and the House leader not to embrace at least a portion of the candidate's ambitious ideas about economic justice, given the fresh face has generated an enthusiasm within the Democratic ranks arguably not seen since Bernie Sanders ran for president eight years ago.

However, should the former governor, who had been predicted to win easily in the Democratic primary, achieve a surprising riches-to-rags-to-riches win, it could cement the party's existing approach of considered, lackluster opposition – a tactic that has infuriated grassroots members. A NYC rejection of the progressive's progressive, positive message could persuade Schumer and Jeffries that the best plan is to remain in the center – even as surveys show the current iteration of the party is deeply unpopular across the country.

Voter Enthusiasm

Residents of the city seem to prefer the Mamdani vision. Polls show that his backers are far more enthusiastic about their choice than his opponent's supporters, something that has been evident throughout the campaign. Mamdani's snappy videos on social media, his hopeful outlook for New York and his willingness to actually get out and connect with voters in the city has drawn an force of more than 50,000 supporters, many of them young or first-time voters.

Negative Tactics

Yet, Cuomo, in his late sixties, continues to fight. And with the risks stacked against him, the ex-leader has turned to negative campaigning in recent weeks.

After spending months launching various attacks at his opponent to see what might resonate, the independent has narrowed his focus on attacking Mamdani directly. He has labelled his rival, who was born in Uganda to Indian parents, an “extremist”, and popped up on Fox Business for an discussion with Maria Bartiromo, where the candidate asserted the city “will not survive” his opponent as mayor. It hit bottom recently, when the former governor laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a broadcaster said the candidate would “cheer” another 9/11-style incident.

Political Landscape

The line of attack mirrors much of what Trump, who has sent the military reserves to Washington DC and warned to do the same to NYC, has said about Mamdani, and perhaps that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A group of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who contributed to Trump in the 2024 election, have invested heavily into trying to elect Cuomo into office, as other influential figures have pressured Curtis Sliwa to drop out from the race.

Candidate Backgrounds

As far as the his team, and his wealthy backers, are worried, it should not have reached to this. When the assemblyman, one of one hundred fifty state legislators, started his mayoral bid in last year, not many had heard of him, and in reality, barely anyone even noticed.

Cuomo, by contrast, eased his way into the race in this year and became the instant favorite. He was the political heavyweight who apparently held all the advantages. The quintessential political insider, he had wed a Kennedy and served in a Democratic presidency. He became the state's leader in over a decade ago, seventeen years after his parent, the former governor, stepped down from the identical role.

Mamdani, who was voted in to the New York state assembly in 2020, does not have the same political heritage. But his dedication to providing free buses and free childcare – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – present a brighter outlook of the city's direction than his opponent's pessimistic predictions about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his vow to increase police presence.

Recent Challenges

Still, the candidate has encountered some challenges in the final phase, after footage emerged appearing to show him implying the New York police department and the IDF were intertwined.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the police is on your neck, it’s been influenced by the Israeli military,” the candidate said in the clip, recorded at a DSA gathering in recent years. Mamdani, a vocal opponent of the Israeli government who has said the country is committing genocide in Gaza, indicated he was questioning joint training exercises between the NYPD and Israeli forces.

Emotional Response

As the race closes, the candidate seems to have gained sympathy and support, however, for his reaction to Cuomo’s increasing rhetoric.

Mamdani addressed the independent's terrorism comments in an heartfelt recording. In it, Mamdani recalled how, when he first campaigned for the legislature, a Muslim uncle suggested to him that he did not have to tell people about his religion. It was a lesson, Mamdani said, that many local Muslims had been told “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the shadows of our community. That it is in those hidden spaces alone where Muslims could embrace their full identities, and that if we were to emerge from those shadows, then it is in those shadows that we must leave our faith.”

Speaking to the actions of his opponents, who has alleged Mamd